The Effect of “Freebies” on Runs Allowed and Winning in NCAA Division I Baseball

Abstract

Freebies are defined to be an action by the defensive team that allows at least one base runner and/or batter to advance at least one base. Simple linear regression models were computed to investigate the relationship between freebies and runs allowed and games won for National College Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I baseball teams using data from the 2011 - 2015 seasons. Using this model we can say on average, for every three freebies committed per game, your opponent will score 2 more runs per game. Binary logistic regression models were constructed to analyze individual game data from the 2015 season for selected NCAA Division I baseball teams. We estimate for each additional freebie in a game, the odds of winning decreases by between 16% and 23%, while holding game location and NCAA tournament participation at fixed values.